How accurate is Goalmetry, really?
Anyone can claim they're good. So here are the actual numbers — measured the only honest way: every prediction made using only matches played before that game, with the same model that runs in production. No cherry-picking. We show where we win and where we don't.
Predictions scored
376,004
out-of-sample
Skill vs no-skill
+19.2%
Brier skill score
Brier score
0.199
baseline 0.246
Calibration error
0.5%
avg predicted vs real
Performance by market
Brier score is the average squared error of our probabilities — lower is better. The baseline is a model that always guesses the long-run average. The gap is our skill.
| Market | Predictions | Brier | Baseline | Skill | Calib. error | Confident calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals (Over/Under) | 112,004 | 0.191 | 0.211 | +9.2% | 0.8% | 78.0% righton 75,662 calls ≥65% |
| Shots on target | 60,000 | 0.185 | 0.210 | +12.1% | 1.4% | 79.1% righton 40,525 calls ≥65% |
| Cards | 48,000 | 0.199 | 0.250 | +20.5% | 1.5% | 76.0% righton 15,500 calls ≥65% |
| Goalkeeper saves | 72,000 | 0.207 | 0.234 | +11.2% | 0.7% | 70.6% righton 2,841 calls ≥65% |
| Corners | 48,000 | 0.227 | 0.246 | +7.6% | 1.8% | 72.9% righton 14,610 calls ≥65% |
| Total shots | 36,000 | 0.193 | 0.230 | +16.1% | 1.1% | 69.4% righton 2,667 calls ≥65% |
"Confident calls" = how often the outcome happened when our model put it at 65% or higher. Honest confidence means this tracks the probability, not 100%.
Are our probabilities honest? (Goals markets)
We grouped every goals prediction by the probability we gave it, then checked how often it actually happened. A trustworthy model's bars line up: when we say 70%, it lands about 70% of the time.
what actually happened · what we predicted. When they line up, our probabilities are honest.
How we measured this
Walk-forward out-of-sample backtest: every prediction uses only matches played before that fixture, with the same model and parameters that run in production. Brier score = mean squared error of our probabilities (lower is better); the baseline is a no-skill model that always predicts the historical base rate.
Report generated on 20 June 2026 from 376,004 out-of-sample predictions. Numbers are recomputed from live historical data, never hand-entered. Goalmetry is data-driven analysis, not betting tips — markets are unpredictable and no model is right every time. 18+.